Studies of Social-Economic Scenario for Climate Change Impact
Yao Yufang Jiang Jinhe Yi Shaohua
(Institute of Quantitative & Technical Economy, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences)
Global swarm and its climate change have brought people’s attention. Firstly this paper analyzes future development phases of China based on experience of developed countries, including population, economic development, urbanism etc., and makes the following conclusion: China will basically realize modernization before 2050, belonging to middling developed countries, and enter into developed economy phase before 2080.
The second part of this paper synthesizes main factors influencing land utilization in China, including economy development and industry structure adjustment, urbanism, policy implementation of manual forestation and restoring forestation from land, lost water and land, barren land. Now per capita tilled land in China has less half average of world (0.24 ha). In a word, badness of environment and land policy adjustment affect utilization mode and function of land. Moreover the area of land also directly decides foodstuff output. We think the main factors influencing foodstuff: technology advance, weather disaster (such as flood, drought etc.), climate change and capital.
Finally we develop a medium-long term macroeconomic model using system dynamics and input-output theory. The model includes several sub-models, such as production, population (divided four age section), capital, and technology advance etc., and 10 industries ( agriculture, coal, oil and gas, trade, service etc.) . Every industry has its production equation. We predict main indicators trend between 2000-2050 and 2080 using the model, such as population, urbanism, GDP, industry structure, and labor structure etc.. Because of too many indeterminate factors, we model high scenario and low scenario. Based on the modeling result, and considering land change, effect factors of foodstuff output, and per capita demand on foodstuff, we predict foodstuff output and demand between 2000 and 2080. The results show that the maximum import of foodstuff will take place at population peak, and the import value is less than 10 percent of total demand.
Keywords: climate change land utilization foodstuff output economic model