The Development of Integrated Crop/Weather Forecasting Systems
A. J. Challinor, T. Wheeler, J. Slingo, D. Grimes and P. Craufurd
Some controlled experiments to determine the potential impacts of climate change on crop productivity are presented. These highlight the importance of high temperature episodes near anthesis. This in turn shows that temperature variability, independent of any substantial changes in mean seasonal temperature, will become increasingly important for the yield of annual crops.
Some of the implications of this for forecasting crop productivity are discussed. In order to meet the challenge of forecasting under climate change, meteorological and agricultural knowledge need to be effectively combined. The development of an integrated weather/crop forecasting system is described, and preliminary hindcast results for India are presented. The methodology behind the system is based on an analysis of the spatial structure of the relationship between rainfall and yield, and subsequent process-based modeling.
Watching Slides: http://www.ami.ac.cn/Sino_UK/workshop/challinor_china.ppt