The Possible Impacts of Climate Change on Wheat Production in China
Agro-meteorology Institute of Chinese Academy of Agricultural Science
Beijing, China, Sep 2002
Abstract. Agriculture in China has become increasingly sensitive to climate change. Wheat (Triticum aestivum) is the second most important grain crop in China. Its cultivation occupies an estimated 30,000,000 hectares and is exceeded only by rice in cultivated area and grain production. Wheat planting areas account for 22－30% of china’s total arable land . And winter wheat accounts for 88 to 90 percent of China’s total wheat Production.
In order to predict the future wheat yield change in China, DSSAT 3 model nested with climate change scenarios was used to simulate the wheat yield change under future climate change condition. Through the models running, calculated genotype coefficient for different wheat varieties and outputs their changes range for different cultivars. Using the coefficients, preliminary analyses were made on the effects of the atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration increased during wheat growing period in China. The main result found is that with the increase of CO2 concentration, the yield of spring wheat decreases in the middle of next century in some regions of China, if adaptation technology is not adopted. Reduction of CO2 emission is helpful to decrease climate change disadvantages to wheat yield. Wheat yield will increase with sufficient irrigation under the condition of increased CO2 concentration. Water supply is the dominating factor to wheat production in China.
Watching Slides: http://www.ami.ac.cn/Sino_UK/workshop/Ju%20workshop.ppt