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Climate Change, the Agricultural Water Resources, and Agricultural Production in China

[AM1] Fulu Tao,a*. Masayuki Yokozawa,b Yousay Hayashi,b Erda Lina

 

Abstract. Climate change will have a major impact on the hydrological cycle and consequently on available water resources, the potential for flood and drought, and agricultural productivity. In this study, the impacts of climate change on the agricultural water cycle and their implications for agricultural production in the 2020s were assessed by water-balance calculations for Chinese croplands. Temporal and spatial changes in potential evapotranspiration, actual evapotranspiration, soil moisture, soil-moisture deficit, yield index, and cropland surface runoff under the baseline climate and a HadCM2 GCM climate-change scenario were mapped[SD2] on a grid of 0.5°latitude/longitude resolution.

According to the analysis, agricultural water demand in some areas of Southern China is projected to decrease generally, and the cropland soil-moisture deficit would be alleviated by climate change. However, in other regions, especially in central China, agricultural water demand is expected to increase, and the soil-moisture deficit would generally be aggravated. There is a general drying trend, except in some areas of south and northwest China. The changes in water cycle would have consequent impacts on the yield index. Cropland surface runoff during the growing period is expected to increase on some sloping croplands in the southwest mountain areas and in some areas along the Southern coast.

The adaptation options, including modifying the severely inharmonious proportions between plantation, forestry and stockbreeding in Northern China, improving agriculture water use efficiency, and developing trans-basin water diversion are suggested.

Improved regional climate scenario and more integrated assessment model are important for further researches.

Keywords: Climate change, Agricultural water cycle, Soil moisture, Yield index


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[AM1]This is my suggestion for the title, as I think it describes what is in the text better. One alternative would be ‘A model of changes in soil moisture in China over the last half-century: are rainfall extremes affecting agricultural production?’

[SD2] I don't think "derived" works here. Perhaps "modeled" or "mapped"

a Agro-meteorology Institute, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, China.

b National Institute for Agro-Environmental Sciences, 3-1-3 Kannondai, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8604, Japan.


Watching Slides: http://www.ami.ac.cn/Sino_UK/workshop/Tao%20fulu.ppt

Source:http://www.ami.ac.cn/Sino_UK/

Date:Sep 11,2002