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Advances in Climate Change Research(Vol.3 No.3 May 2007)

Contents
Vol. 3  No. 3  May  2007
 
 
Articles
 
131  Updated Understanding of Climate Change Impacts
Lin Erda, Wu Shaohong, Dai Xiaosu, et al.
 
137  Response of Melting Ice to Climate Change in the Glacier No. 1 at the Headwaters of Urumqi River, Tianshan Mountain
Li Zhongqin, Shen Yongping, Wang Feiteng, et al.
 
Review
 
143  Advances in East Asian Paleoclimate Modelling for the Last Glacial Maximum by China
Liang Xiaoyun, Jiang Dabang
 
Special Section on Extreme Events
 
148  A Review on Study of Change in Precipitation Extremes                                        
Zhai Panmao, Wang Cuicui, Li Wei
 
153  Analysis of Severe Drought and Heat Wave over the Sichuan Basin in the Summer of 2006
Zou Xukai, Gao Hui
 
157  Researches on Extratropical Cyclone Variability in the Northern Hemisphere
Wang Xinmin, Zou Xukai, Zhai Panmao
 
161  Projections of Typhoon Changes over the Western North Pacific Ocean for the 21st century             
Zhao Zongci, Luo Yong, Gao Xuejie, et al.
 
166  Researches in Projection of Extreme Events in China
Gao Xuejie
 
Letters
 
171  Multi-Scale Characteristics and Unsteadiness of Reconstructed Temperature and Ice Accumulation Records in Guliya Ice Core
Dai Xingang, You Li, Wang Ping, et al.
 
176  Reconstruction of Summer Average Temperature from Tree-Ring Proxy Data During 1751-2005 in Mt. Kongtong
Hou Ying, Wang Nai’ang, Li Gang, et al.
 
Forum
182  The Sao Paulo Proposal’s Key Elementss
Chen Ying
 
Notes
183  Assessments and Projections of Temperature Rising Since the Establishment of IPCC
Zhao Zongci, Wang Shaowu, Luo Yong

Research Programme
185  A Brief of the ADMA Project 
Dai Xingang
 
News
186  US Army Released a New Report on National Security and the Threat of Climate Change
Wang Fang, Xu Ying, Zhou Botao, et al.

Updated Understanding of Climate Change Impacts

Lin Erda1, Wu Shaohong2, Dai Xiaosu3, Liu Hongbin4,
Liu Chunzhen5, Gao Qingxian6, Li Congxian7, Bao Manzhu8
(1 Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, China; 2  Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing  100101, China; 3 China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China; 4 National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China;
5 Water Information Center, Ministry of Water Resources, Beijing 100053, China; 6 Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences, Beijing 100012, China; 7 School of Ocean and Earth Science, Tongji University, Shanghai 200092, China; 8 Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan 430070, China)
 
Abstract: “Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability”, the Working Group II contribution to the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) was launched on April 6, 2007. This report summarize the newest peer-reviewed and comprehensive findings from international scientific communities on impact and adaptation. The observed evidence shows that it is likely that anthropogenic warming has had a discernible influence on many physical and biological systems, but many are difficult to discern due to adaptation and non-climatic factors. By the mid-21th century, annual average river runoff and water availability are projected to decrease by 10%~30% over some dry regions at mid-latitudes and in the dry tropics; Approximately 20%~30% of plant and animal species assessed so far are likely to be at increased risk of extinction if increases in global average temperature exceed 1.5~2.5℃; Globally, the potential for food production is projected to increase with increases in local average temperature over a range of 1~3℃, but above this it is projected to decrease. A portfolio of adaptation and mitigation measures can diminish the risks associated with climate change.
 
Key words:  climate change; impacts and adaptation; IPCC WGII; the Fourth Assessment Report
 
Response of Melting Ice to Climate Change in the Glacier No. 1 at the Headwaters of Urumqi River, Tianshan Mountain
 
Li Zhongqin, Shen Yongping, Wang Feiteng, Li Huilin, Dong Zhiwen, Wang Wenbin, Wang Lin
 (State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Science/ Tianshan Glaciological Station, Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China)
 
Abstract: Current glacier recession under climate warming has drawn widely attention around the world. Initiated from 1958, the observations of Urumqi Glacier No. 1 at the headwaters of Urumqi River in eastern Tianshan promise the best datasets of glacier and climate changes in China. Taking Urumqi Glacier No. 1 as an example, this paper has analyzed the response of the glacier to the climate change. The results show that during the past 50 years, remarkable changes occurred on the glacier, including snow-firn stratigraphy, glacial zone, glacial temperature (borehole temperature), glacier area, and glacier terminus position etc. These changes are found to be closely related to temperature rise in this area. The glacier retreat appeared throughout the entire observed time period and has shown an accelerated tendency during the last 20 years, particularly after 1995. In addition to summer temperature increase, other two reasons may also be responsible for the acceleration of glacier melting: one is the glacial temperature rise, which reduced the cold reserve in the glacier and thus increased the sensitivity of the glacier to air temperature rise; the other is the decrease of albedo on the glacier surface, which evidently enhanced absorption of radiation.
 
Key words: glacier melting; climate warming; Tanshan Mountain; Urumqi Glacier No. 1
 
Advances in East Asian Paleoclimate Modelling for the Last Glacial Maximum by China
 
Liang Xiaoyun1, Jiang Dabang2
 (1 Laboratory for Climate Studies, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China; 2 Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China)
 
Abstract: The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) is about 21000 calendar years before present, with climate conditions significantly different from the present. Some numerical experiments for this period have been performed in China in recent several years. It is revealed that the LGM was generally characterized by lowered surface temperature relative to the present over China inland, decreased precipitation in the central and eastern China, intensified East Asian winter monsoon and weakened East Asian summer monsoon. Moreover, based on the boundary conditions recommended by the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP), it is further indicated that vegetation feedback in East Asia, possible ice sheet over the Tibetan Plateau, and sea surface temperature reconstruction in the western Pacific different from the PMIP data source can induce additional climate effects, which partly reconcile model-paleodata discrepancies as displayed by the standard PMIP simulations.
 
Key words: Last Glacial Maximum (LGM); modelling; East Asia
 
A Review on Study of Change in Precipitation Extremes
 
Zhai Panmao1 , Wang Cuicui2 , Li Wei1
 (1 National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China; 2 Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China)
 
Abstract: Based on review of the main progresses in precipitation extremes under the background of global warming, this study discusses the character of change in precipitation extremes. It indicates that during the recent 50 years, in most parts of China, the number of  precipitation days has decreased significantly except in Northwest China, while the precipitation intensity has increased significantly. In North China, the precipitation extreme has decreased, but the proportion of extreme precipitation to the total has increased relatively; the intense precipitation extreme has become frequently in the western Northwest China, over and to the south of the Yangtze River. The annual precipitation amount from wet spells has decreased significantly in North China, eastern Northeast China and the eastern part of Southwest China, but increased in the eastern Tibetan Plateau and some southeast coastal areas. The number of days of trace precipitation has decreased is an important drought tendency. The relationship between extreme precipitation and total precipitation is very complicated under the impact of climate warming.
 
Key words: climate change; extreme precipitation events; observation
 
Analysis of Severe Drought and Heat Wave over the Sichuan Basin in the Summer of 2006
 
Zou Xukai, Gao Hui
 (National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China)
 
Abstract: In the summer of 2006, severe heat wave and drought hit Chongqing municipality and Sichuan Province, causing dramatic economic losses and environmental damages. The comprehensive effect of the weather-related disturbances and global warming may be the reasons for the occurrence of the warm extremes in Chongqing and Sichuan in the summer of 2006, but the random weather-related disturbances contribute most to the local warm extremes in last summer. It is indicated that less cold air activities, northward locations of subtropical high ridgeline, and less snow cover over the Tibetan Plateau in the winter and spring of 2005/2006 are the main three direct causes for the extremely hot and dry weather over the above-mentioned areas in the summer of 2006.
 
Key words:   heat wave; drought; global warming; weather disturbance; Sichuan Province; Chongqing Municipality

Researches on Extratropical Cyclone Variability in the Northern Hemisphere
Wang Xinmin 1, 2, Zou Xukai 3, Zhai Panmao4
 (1 Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China; 2 Henan Provincial Meteorological Bureau, Zhengzhou 450003, China; 3 National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration,  Beijing 100081, China; 4 Department of Forecasting Services and Disaster Mitigation, China Meteorological Administration,  Beijing 100081, China)
 
Abstract: Studies on extratropical cyclones under the climate warming background have attracted particular concern in recent years. Most of these researches focused on the characteristics of interannual or interdecadal variations of cyclone frequency, intensity and storm tracks. The consensus indicated that cyclone frequency by statistics has significantly decreased in mid-latitudes, but increased in high-latitudes. Storm intensity has increased in both high- and mid-latitudes during the past 50 years. The global warming might have resulted in a northward shift of storm tracks in the Northern Hemisphere. In addition, cyclone activities have good relations with  tropospheric baroclinity, westerly jet, and sea surface temperature (SST) gradient.
 
Key words: extratropical cyclone; climate warming; baroclinic instability; NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data; sea-level pressure
 
Projections of Typhoon Changes over the Western North Pacific Ocean for the 21st Century
 Zhao Zongci, Luo Yong, Gao Xuejie, Xu Ying
 (National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China)
 
Abstract: It is summarized the projections of typhoon changes over the western North Pacific Ocean for the 21st century in the recent years. Multi-model ensembles with the various human emission scenarios indicate that the total numbers of the annual typhoons simulated over the western North Pacific Ocean might decrease by the end of the 21st century. But the numbers of the strong typhoons simulated and the intensities of their wind speed and precipitation might increase at the same time. It must be emphasized that the long-term projection of the typhoons is a very difficult issue, the further studies will be conducted in future to narrow the gaps and uncertainties. The mechanisms and feedbacks between the human activities and typhoon changes should be investigated in detail.
 
Key words: western North Pacific Ocean; typhoon changes; projections; 21st century
 
Researches in Projection of Extreme Events in China
 
Gao Xuejie
 (National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China)
 
Abstract: In this paper, we review basic methods for projecting possible future changes in extreme events, with an emphasis on the analysis of output from high resolution climate models. Current and past research on extreme events in East Asia and China are discussed and the projections for China are summarized, including existing problems in these projections. It is pointed out that further studies in the following areas are needed in order to better project future extreme events over China: higher spatial and temporal resolution gridded observational data, extended high resolution regional climate model simulations, multi-model ensembles, and the application of statistical downscaling. In addition, the effects of land use and atmospheric aerosols must be considered in model simulations.
 
Key words: climate change; climate model; extreme events; projection; China region
 
Multi-Scale Characteristics and Unsteadiness of Reconstructed Temperature and Ice Accumulation Records in Guliya Ice Core
 
Dai Xingang1, 2,  You Li3,  Wang Ping1,  Feng Guolin2
 (1 Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment Research for Temperate East Asia, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China; 2 Laboratory for Climate Studies, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China; 3 Meteorological Bureau of Inner Mongolia, Hohhot 010051, China)
 
Abstract: The multi-scale characteristics of the reconstructed temperature and glacier ice accumulation from Guliya ice core on the Tibetan Plateau are studied by orthogonal wavelet decomposition. The main characteristics of the two sequences can be almost totally reproduced by the components with the scales longer than 100 years, and the well-known climate events in the records can be fitted well by only one or several decomposed components. In addition, the records also show some unsteady properties of their components, by which a number of transient climate events can be interpreted well. Meanwhile the unsteadiness also exists in their collocation evolution although their correlation coefficients are almost positive except for the one at scale 130 years. Besides, the linear trend of temperature and millennia-scale components of the two sequences dominated their collocation evolution during 301-1990 AD.
 
Key words: Guliya ice core; orthogonal wavelets; temperature and ice accumulation; collocation; multi-scale characteristics; unsteadiness
 
Reconstruction of Summer Average Temperature from Tree-Ring Proxy Data During 1751-2005 in Mt. Kongtong
 
Hou Ying, Wang Nai’ang, Li Gang, Zheng Fang
 (Key Laboratory of Western China’s Environmental Systems (Ministry of Education),College of Earth and Environment Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China)
 
Abstract: Based on the Pinus tabulaeformis tree-ring records from Mt. Kongtong, this paper focused on its environment change history. After laboratory approaches like mounting, polishing, cross-dating and high precision measuring, 66 tree-ring cores are used to establish three types of tree-ring width chronologies: standard chronology (STD), residual chronology (RES), and autoregression standard chronology (ARS). Correlation analysis between the chronologies and meteorological observation data shows that the standard tree-ring index has the best correlation with the average temperature of summer. Regression model is also founded according to the analysis results. Different verification results show that the regression model is stable and reliable. The summer average temperature sequence during the period of 1751-2005 is reconstructed, and it exhibits three cold periods: 1764-1785, 1852-1893, 1952-1986 and three warm periods: 1786-1847, 1894-1937, 1987-2004. Comparisons of the temperature with Nino3 index, SOI index and sunspot number suggest that the study area has good response to global climate change and solar activities.
 
Key words:  tree-ring width index; summer average temperature; climate change; Mt. Kongtong
The Sao Paulo Proposal’s Key Elements
Chen Ying
 (Research Centre for Sustainable Development, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Beijing 100732, China)
 
Abstract: Since post-Kyoto negotiations launched, there have been increasing discussions and debates on international climate regime at international level. In August 2006, Brazilian team of the BASIC project put forth a comprehensive package as a basis of an agreement on post-Kyoto international climate regime, known as the Sao Paulo Proposal. In this paper, the principles and key elements of the proposal such as global objective in long term, differentiated commitments of Annex I and non-Annex I Parties, market mechanisms, adaptation, technology research and development and transfer, as well as review and compliance of the proposal protocol are briefly introduced. Then, a preliminary assessment is conducted by comparing with the Brazilian Proposal and by pointing out its inherent limitations on political barriers and technical difficulties.
 
Key words:  the Sao Paulo Proposal; post-Kyoto negotiation; international climate regime
 
Assessments and Projections of Temperature Rising Since the Establishment of IPCC
Zhao Zongci, Wang Shaowu, Luo Yong
 
Source:Advanced in Climate Change Research
Date:May 31,2007